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Future of Music - the Celestial Jukebox

Brian Zisk Technologies Director, FMC (moderator)
Kevin Arnold Founder, IODA (Independent Online Distribution Alliance)
Charlie Chan musician
John Flansburgh Musician, They Might be Giants
Tim Quirk Executive Editor, Music, Real Networks and band Too Much Joy
Derek Sivers president and programmer, CD Baby
Holmes Wilson co-founder, Downhill Battle

Holmes
Payola in radio, payola in print has led to contracts artists not necessarily need sign.

Tim
The spread of music consumption online, beyond the the major five labels.  40% of highlighting placements are from indie labels.  The editorial team works on its own.
Access to everything results in more listening.

Derek
State of indies.  The services have been very open to adding independent music.  Sales reports are even better than expected.

Charlie
Sony was not successful at selling my music.  Protest outside parliament in 1994.  Put music downloads online and sales converted.  Selling on my own actually helps for cash flow reasons.  Most airplay comes from placement in films and most sales come as a result.

Kevin
Digital music distributor.  We don't have a large catalog of artists for whom we already are selling music, but are in it for the long-term given the potential we see.

John
We own some of our music which we sell online.  We are creating our own store for paid downloads.  You kinda hope that iTunes price level works as it sits at a price under which the artist can make money.  Subscriptions are tough for artists?

Tim
Why do subscriptions not work

John
I haven't made any real money.  Other than any payments I received up front.

Tim
Rhapsody pays a set royalty per stream, not a percentage of revenue.

John
the blurred line between broadcasting and selling.  We sell expensive products people don't really want.  The problem with streaming is … Sum up the business of music penny business… streaming turns you in to a little broadcasting fee.

Tim
Questions whether john is happy be be paid as a songwriter for radio play.  Yes the money from streaming, so far, has not been large.  But in the future it is going to be.

John
Its not just about the consumer.  Its about me to.  I am afraid this is a crummy deal for artists.

Tim
In the end, the total pay from a fan for a series of plays in a service could compete with the CD revenue.

Brian.
Phish sold 2.25 million dollars worth of downloads last year.  Any of the other indies seeing that?

John
I'd be in any other business if I were in this for the money.  The distributors will cut the deals with the services.  While doing you own thing, on your own site, is very easy with direct payment.  It says to the fan, "this is me, this is my stuff.  there is no label getting rich.  This is something done by real people.

Will artists play in all services while also doing their own thing?

Kevin
Yes.  And they should.  I don't believe CDs will be gone in 5 years.  It will be about however you can get ahold of music.

How many different services for CDbaby?
22
What is the distribution of sales

Derek
Artists who sold only three CDs suddenly sold 300 downloads.  Also people are searching by genre/style and can come up with you record.

Is there a reason to withold your music?

Tim
I don't think so.  Even when people come to my own site, most people choose to goto Amazon.  There is too much power in 1/2 a century of recordings

John
Is the new boss the same as the old boss?  Internet companies are back now.  This is the way things are going.  Major labels are a punchline.  There is a lot of confetti in the air.

Kevin
We are at the beginning of this process.  Eventually there will be a good result.

Holmes
We see something radically different.  The center isn't going to hold.  In the short term the good things might come true.  Within a yaer lawsuit-proof file-sharing clients,  These clients will add meta data, album graphics and other services.  Not necessarily bad… as more people do this, the pressure on major labels will be full.  Alternative compensation systems.  This flat fee could provide artists with more money since it should be non-recoupable.  In the near-future.  War or Truce.  Bills passing through congress make sharing music a felony.  Likely to pass.. thus everyone goes to the encrypted land.  The Truce is a realization that p2p has to be brought into the fold.  The technology could exist quickly.

Any chance of an ACS?
John - not alot of history on this.  If XM takes off, then this large scale subscription seems more reasonable.

Kevin
Is this a tax

Holmes
Long diatribe on ACS.

John
This is very utopian.  The indie artist is keen to say yes and no.

Holmes
Isn't it already over.  The best-selling CD in the country is blank.  The new consumer is being trained to download free music.  They got good SAT scores, they are not stupid.  Free is free.  File-sharing is the future of music, the income streams that have existed for the last fifty years will not existent.  Before the pop tune, there were few revenue streams.  Being a musician is a crummy life, you get used to it.

Charlie
I am not readily available on peer services.  I make money selling music online, and have made an application for selling mp3s online.  I don't believe in circumvention or protecting my music.  I have respect for my fans.

John
When we announce a new MP3 through out mailing list, with a password, 100,000 people stop by, then 100,000, then 50,000.  But only 50,000 people are on the list.
New fans are just generationally different.

Holmes
The presence of free music hasn't cancelled music sales.  People get music through both channels.  You have the music you listen to and the music you pay for.  People pay for the music they really value.

John
There is no bigger cultural pinnata than the major record labels.  These are decisions that individuals get to make.  Your decisions are those that are made by big governments and don't allow artists to negotiate for themselves.  We feel like the more we can negotiate on our own, the better we can do.  I need to make my situation as best as I can for myself.

Then I zoned out.


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